It’s Saturday of Week Six and I haven’t posted my weekly matchup preview yet! Bad Fantasy First-Timer! Fifty lashes with a wet noodle!
With no further ado, then, let’s get down to the business of checking out this week’s lines:
I’m favored, as you’ll notice, but not by much. And my projected score is lower this week than it has been in the last couple of weeks. Why should this be, you ask? The detailed breakdown of my matchup with this week’s opponent, Team GooDfoRyoU, will help to clear it up:
There are two parts to why this matchup is projected much closer than Week Four or Five’s were. The first is my own team’s lower projected score. Brady, Elliott, Gordon, Green, and Gore all have tougher matchups this week than last and all have their projected scores shaved off a point or three because of it. (By the way – lots of Gs in that lineup there. I’ve not really paid attention to that before now.) Now, some of these guys will overperform these projections, no matter the matchup they face. Brady could, for instance – Cincinnati doesn’t scare me, at least not as regards to Brady’s comeback tour. Gore could, too – Houston’s a divisional rival, and those games are unpredictable sometimes. He’s very likely to score a touchdown, I should think. But some of them will probably be under – I’m looking at A.J. Green, who has scored either 25 points or 5 points depending on the week, and I’m looking at New England’s defense, and I’m thinking it’s more like a 5 point week, unfortunately. I’m looking at Elliott, and I’m just not sure what to think of his matchup against Green Bay, although he’s surprised me at every turn so I hesitate to doubt him. Gordon, by the way, played already on Thursday and scored 9 points. Which, you know, is great, except it’s under his projected score. So I’m already behind the 8-ball here.
The second part is the strength of Team GooDfoRyoU. And let’s be honest, his team is strong. Cam Newton, back from concussion this week, should do really well against New Orleans. There’s a reason his projected score is the highest of any player in the league this weekend. And a lot of his players with moderate projected scores have the ability to overperform. Darren Sproles could, for sure, as could Alshon Jeffrey. T.Y. Hilton went for 23 points last week. Granted, it was against a much weaker defense in Chicago than he faces this week in Houston, but still.
I don’t feel confident, is the point I’m trying to make. I still stand a good chance of winning this weekend’s matchup, but I don’t have the same level of confidence as I’ve enjoyed the past two weeks leading up to my two wins.
Still, I don’t think I can put together a better lineup than what I have now. I’ve got the best quarterback available to me, and projections or not I’d still rather have my quarterback than his. I’ve got my running back corps on a down week, but my running backs on their worst day are still better than many running backs at their best. I’ve got strength in the defense and kicker positions that should buoy me. I’ve got wide receivers coming out of my ears at this point, and I’m most confident in the two that I have lined up to start for me. I’m still not wild about my tight end choices, but honestly? I could throw a dart at the three guys I’m debating between (Dennis Pitta, Charles Clay, and Richard Rodgers) and have just as good a chance at picking which of them will score the highest as I would trying to analyze them before the fact. I’ll regret it next week if one of them happens to go off, but there’s no way now to look at them and see which one it will be. So all I can do is to pick one and stick with him, which is what I’ve done with Dennis Pitta.
I’ve done my part to get my record up to .500. Now I just need the men of Team BlueAndGold to go out on Sunday and do theirs.
So don’t let me down, fellas.